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WATHBA

A portfolio seeking high capital growth, with a prominent role for relative strength and an acceptance of substantial volatility.

Start with WATHBACompare portfolios

Each portfolio is a standard model with predefined rules, not a portfolio tailored to you. You choose which model to follow; the portfolio subscription does not include a personalized suitability assessment. Review the portfolio risks and service terms before proceeding.

Historical metrics

Hypothetical backtest · 2015–2026

Compound annual growth rate
29.9%
Annualised portfolio growth over the backtest period.
Best year
67.7%
Worst year
−1.4%
Maximum drawdownFrom peak to trough
−16.4%
Annual volatility
12.9%

Hypothetical backtested results, not an actual trading record. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and future losses may exceed the drawdowns shown.

About the metrics
Compound annual growth rate
Annualised portfolio growth over the backtest period.
Maximum peak-to-trough drawdown
The largest decline from a previous portfolio high to a subsequent low during the backtest.
Annual volatility
A measure of the variation in daily returns, expressed on an annual basis.

March 2015 – September 2026

Performance comparison

WATHBA compared with the SPY ETF, tracking the S&P 500 Index.

March 2015 – September 2026

Growth of a hypothetical USD 100,000 investment.
Date
WATHBA
2,059,107USD
SPY ETF
437,012USD

Portfolio value in USD

01m2m3m20152018202120242026

Time

Touch the chart or move the pointer to inspect values. Use the date slider or arrow keys to move through daily observations.

End-of-period value
WATHBA
2,059,107USD
SPY ETF
437,012USD
View chart data
Growth of a hypothetical USD 100,000 investment. · 2026
DateWATHBA (USD)SPY (USD)
1,735,082388,442
1,758,780391,026
1,766,717393,353
1,766,779392,086
1,762,436392,046
1,773,126394,636
1,773,574395,261
1,785,149394,470
1,783,658392,528
1,783,171393,599
1,782,516393,267
1,779,656385,262
1,787,744389,708
1,803,564391,743
1,816,299391,886
1,827,560393,874
1,851,442395,444
1,873,352395,404
1,878,238394,619
1,878,347393,444
1,821,912395,398
1,817,957392,058
1,846,933390,161
1,841,499385,284
1,819,875392,677
1,859,590394,568
1,868,249393,530
1,871,398393,439
1,850,210387,359
1,853,067387,634
1,856,648388,258
1,833,061390,213
1,851,980389,187
1,851,363392,000
1,870,152387,995
1,874,607390,820
1,874,700394,115
1,883,097391,926
1,868,801390,046
1,881,374390,264
1,858,312386,826
1,858,883389,554
1,848,937387,382
1,840,622382,305
1,840,025385,657
1,839,500385,038
1,844,590384,551
1,842,089378,712
1,817,782376,569
1,809,071380,402
1,817,845381,399
1,799,820376,082
1,769,638375,153
1,761,602369,772
1,741,239373,658
1,735,806372,403
1,735,327374,477
1,754,265367,790
1,731,652361,521
1,745,407360,312
1,715,546370,787
1,789,020373,577
1,809,555373,915
1,808,297375,680
1,806,099375,847
1,832,039385,422
1,856,629387,645
1,861,808387,387
1,858,578391,175
1,885,438395,937
1,918,415399,066
1,931,818400,046
1,938,732404,876
1,961,819404,068
1,964,963401,421
1,958,394405,490
1,968,315403,914
1,966,833407,043
1,961,773407,747
1,942,311405,765
1,941,047405,702
1,951,136409,736
1,951,881410,870
1,959,415409,363
1,946,694412,647
1,972,434418,383
2,003,617417,105
1,995,229420,549
2,011,034421,506
2,007,663420,864
2,011,593423,219
2,018,061426,560
1,987,020421,431
1,964,954421,133
1,962,996418,326
1,944,450422,618
1,978,461423,454
1,987,421425,116
1,996,148427,941
2,031,903427,867
2,024,877430,227
2,047,061431,299
2,048,745432,474
2,056,331433,058
2,042,828430,021
2,045,612431,649
2,045,796420,509
1,988,098421,460
1,991,512420,222
1,965,744413,598
1,905,304420,623
1,966,357422,898
1,975,803430,359
2,027,734427,792
2,002,629422,451
1,980,959426,847
2,010,172425,500
2,010,338419,323
1,952,712419,128
1,931,283419,735
1,949,534416,698
1,933,052423,563
1,961,290426,864
1,982,961426,285
1,958,787425,723
1,955,694429,442
1,966,619427,402
1,945,798426,079
1,970,460429,689
1,974,592431,540
1,974,899428,233
1,957,043429,758
1,967,261431,459
1,970,863429,121
1,952,772424,875
1,947,938424,188
1,945,631427,723
1,965,759427,230
1,944,364421,953
1,948,316422,383
1,942,601422,474
1,938,384423,483
1,925,557416,967
1,924,812423,958
1,961,353427,013
1,975,720433,093
1,989,954440,903
2,029,993440,021
2,040,370439,316
2,040,005442,003
2,068,915441,871
2,064,857440,462
2,066,275441,562
2,080,924444,645
2,087,319443,762
2,087,336441,665
2,092,513438,685
2,051,619439,602
2,076,232435,912
2,073,130437,694
2,093,116436,410
2,095,259437,803
2,096,819437,900
2,100,419440,771
2,115,623439,768
2,080,142438,456
2,065,805435,442
2,075,994437,373
2,096,014441,952
2,097,946440,250
2,088,154437,832
2,074,312435,797
2,075,947433,184
2,060,084436,880
2,065,675434,932
2,049,990432,932
2,063,637431,024
2,066,947435,912
2,071,963436,473
2,091,885443,241
2,105,595443,172
2,107,177439,980
2,083,154439,619
2,081,104442,009
2,093,658438,720
2,051,566437,912
2,059,107437,012

Hypothetical backtested results, not an actual trading record. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and future losses may exceed the drawdowns shown.

WATHBA (SPY)

The figures in context

This portfolio, SPY and a reference at the same volatility.

Hypothetical backtest · SPY total return · USD

Scroll across to compare
The figures in context
MeasureWATHBASPYSPY at this portfolio’s volatility
Return a year29.9%13.6%10.8%
Volatility12.9%17.6%12.9%
Largest fall−16.4%−33.7%−25.7%

SPY is a U.S. equity reference on a total-return basis. Its composition and risk differ from those of each portfolio. A year is 252 trading sessions. A dash means the figure was not supplied.

Full return and risk breakdownRecovery, market behaviour and the two research periods

Returns

Returns
MeasureWATHBASPY
3 years, a year42.3%22.3%
5 years, a year36.0%13.2%
2026 to date17.9%12.7%
100,000 grew to2,059,107437,012
Best year67.7%—
Worst year−1.4%—

Risk & recovery

Risk & recovery
MeasureWATHBASPY
Months to recover2.74.6
Longest time below a prior peak (months)9.623.3
Worst 12 months−6.6%−19.7%
12-month windows positive98%87%
36-month windows positive100%—
Positive months73%70%
Worst month−8.2%2026-03—

Relative to SPY & the tails

Relative to SPY & the tails
MeasureWATHBASPY
Beta (monthly)0.731.00
Correlation (monthly)0.781.00
Upside capture120%100%
Downside capture42%100%
Tracking error9.7%—
Daily VaR (99%)−2.3%−3.2%
Daily expected shortfall (99%)−2.9%−4.6%

Two research periods

Two research periods
Annualised returnWATHBASPY
Development period (9.8 years)29.6%12.9%
Out-of-sample period (1.7 years, read once)33.9%19.2%

Beta, correlation, captures and tracking error use monthly returns against SPY. Captures compare compounded, annualised returns in months when SPY rose or fell. The volatility-matched reference is the 3-month T-bill plus SPY’s excess return scaled by the ratio of the two volatilities, with no borrowing cost or fund fee. VaR and expected shortfall use historical daily returns.

Months to recover: from the trough of the largest fall to the first new high, in calendar months. The longest time below a prior peak is the longest run from a high to the next new high. The reserved period, at the end of the window, was read once and never re-run; 1.7 years is too short to prove or disprove anything on its own. The dates are on the Methodology page and in the public record.

WATHBA

Risk scale

Based on historical volatility bands across the backtest window. This is a volatility measure, not a limit on possible losses.

5 / 7

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Lower volatilityHigher volatility

Monthly returns

Returns in %. The first and last months are partial months of the window; the year’s total is the published yearly figure.

Scroll across to compare
Monthly returns · WATHBA
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear total
2015——−2.82.21.6−4.20.5−5.5−1.610.00.4−1.2−1.4%
2016−4.76.05.50.81.31.25.71.20.3−1.01.41.920.9%
20172.74.31.81.85.6−1.93.20.60.93.12.64.332.8%
20189.8−1.5−4.20.73.8−1.02.74.1−1.0−5.4−1.1−5.50.4%
20192.82.71.95.1−4.16.74.9−2.20.83.13.05.333.6%
20208.4−5.4−4.09.02.56.110.69.20.7−0.410.07.767.7%
20210.71.93.26.93.11.34.93.6−3.75.54.04.141.5%
2022−6.88.13.91.22.1−3.85.30.3−2.810.6−0.5−0.916.7%
20236.6−0.96.7−1.05.94.34.5−3.0−3.41.48.37.041.9%
20242.75.27.0−0.64.86.03.07.65.2−0.93.50.353.2%
20251.7−2.63.32.35.05.71.63.25.35.1−0.52.136.7%
20267.6−0.5−8.213.74.9−4.20.06.1−1.0———17.9%
Calculation and comparison methodology

Results include assumed trading costs and exclude taxes and financing costs.

The chart shows daily closing observations aligned to the comparison record's dates. Maximum drawdown is calculated from the daily record and may have occurred at different times for each series. SPY is a US equity reference and differs from the portfolio in composition and risk.

The worst annual return figure includes the partial period from March to December 2015.

How is WATHBA constructed?

  • Multi-asset defensive strategy

    12.75%

    A diversified allocation that adapts to market trends.

  • Flexible allocation strategy

    34%

    A mix of growth opportunities and defensive components, with allocation adjusted according to defined rules.

  • Market volatility response strategy

    38.25%

    Adjusts investment exposure to market volatility, moving to cash-like exposure when defined conditions are met.

  • Relative Strength Strategy

    15%

    Selects from a defined set of investment instruments based on price trends and relative strength, reviewing its selections daily. It halves its exposure when its sharp-market-decline conditions are met.

These percentages represent allocations to strategies. Each strategy’s underlying holdings change according to its rules.

Risks to understand

The 15% allocation to the Relative Strength Strategy gives its instruments a meaningful influence on portfolio returns and risks. These include leveraged, inverse and volatility-linked investments, while part of the portfolio may also have digital-asset exposure under defined conditions. The portfolio may incur substantial losses before risk-reduction rules take effect. These rules do not guarantee capital protection or limit losses to historical drawdown levels.

Frequently asked questions.

Does the portfolio allocation stay fixed?

The displayed weights refer to strategies. Investments within them change according to defined rules, with risk exposure adjusted based on the portfolio's performance.

Why do we compare the portfolio with SPY?

To show performance alongside a familiar US equity reference and consider return and drawdown together. The portfolio differs from SPY in its composition and risk level.

Choose your portfolio and begin

Start with WATHBACompare portfolios

Each portfolio is a standard model with predefined rules, not a portfolio tailored to you. You choose which model to follow; the portfolio subscription does not include a personalized suitability assessment. Review the portfolio risks and service terms before proceeding.